1.An analyst has established the following prior probabilities regarding a company's next quarter's earnings per share (EPS) exceeding, equaling, or being below the consensus estimate.

Several days before releasing its earnings statement, the company announces a cut in its dividend. Given this information, the analyst revises his opinion regarding the likelihood that the company will have EPS below the consensus estimate. He estimates the likelihoods the company will cut the dividend given that EPS exceed/meet/fall below consensus as reported below.

Bayes' formula:Updated probability of event given the new information

Using Bayes' formula (given above), the updated (posterior) probability that the company's EPS are below the consensus is closest to: