1. Given the following data:
There is a 40% probability that the economy will be good next year and a 60% probability that it will be bad.
If the economy is good, there is a 50% probability of a bull market, a 30% probability of an average market, and a 20% probability of a bear market.
If the economy is bad, there is a 20% probability of a bull market, a 30% probability of an average market, and a 50% probability of a bear market.
The unconditional probability of a bull market is closest to: